The Numbers on Lidge's "Stuff"

Last year he was perfect, this year not so much.

Everyone knows Brad Lidge was "Lights Out" last season. This year, however, has been a different story leaving everyone questioning, "What's wrong with Lidge?" Lidge recently commented that he felt his "stuff" was as good as it been in the last two seasons. Some of Lidge's stats, like his strike percentage seem to confirm this confidence in his ability as a pitcher. His strike percentage remains almost the same,yet his strikeout percentage is down. The numbers drop off in other areas as well, especially in the long ball department. While a few of Lidge's numbers confirm his belief, other numbers show a different side of the story.

2008 vs 2009 vs Career

	2008	2009	carrer
ERA	1.95	7.21	3.45
Saves	41	23	187
Sv opportunities	41	31	222
Blown saves	0	8	35
Save %	100%	74%	84%
W-L	2-0	0-5	25-25
Win %	1.000	.000	.500
Strikeouts	92	46	699
Walks	35	28	233
HR’s allowed	2	10	50

The save percentage is obviously down, but no one expected him to be perfect again. He is only ten points lower in his save percentage this year compared to his career. His home runs are up as well but when compared to his five and a half years as a closer, he averages close to ten home runs a year. The five losses is a direct product of the blown saves.

Strike Ratios

	2008	2009
Strike %	61%	59%
Strikeout %	31.5%	21.9%
Percentages of pitches swung at	43%	43%
First pitch strikes	55%	57%
Strikeout looking	16%	24%
Walk Percentage	12%	13.3%

Believing that Lidge is not throwing as many strikes would be incorrect. The number of strikes thrown are practically the same. In fact he is getting ahead in the count at a higher rate this year than last year. Lidge is even getting called third strikes at a much higher than inn years past. The problem is that he is not striking out as many batter. While his strikeout are down he is not walking many more batters. This leads to one obvious conclusion. They are hitting him at a greater rate.

Hits

	2008	2009
Hits	50	52
H/9	6.5	10.7
Extra Base Hit%	4.5%	10.5%
Percentage of hits that are extra base hits	26%	42%
HR	2	10
HR/9	0.3	2.1
Percentage of flyballs that are home runs	3%	14.5%

Lidge has already given up more hits in just 43.2 innings than he did all of last season in 69.1. One of every ten batters will get an extra base hit with nearly half of Lidge's hits allowed being extra base hits. Even worse, ten of these extra base hits have reached the outfield seats.

The "stuff" Lidge is throwing this season may indeed be the same as last year. The percentage of batters that are successfully hitting Lidge is not the same. In fact it is unnerving how lopsided his stats are. This, however, appears unlikely. If Lidge does not get his "stuff" straightened out soon, a change in the closer role may be needed.


Stats as of 8-18
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lidgebr01-pitch.shtml